How many deaths?

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Post by Efstathios »

I havent opened the Shiraz yet, but soon. I am keeping it for a special occassion, since it is a good wine. And i know i will like it :wink:

Now, on to our subject:

If the figures of 400 and 600.000 Persians that the sources give are not correct , then why would the figures for Egypt be correct? They come from some of the same sources. Because they seem more reasonable? I will have to dissagree. Sending only 10.000 soldiers to deal with the Egyptians ,when they had been a pain in the neck for the Persians doesnt seem reasonable. Not when surely the Persian Empire had a lot more available to send.

We have turned this topic too, into a number's debate :P
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Post by karen »

We have turned this topic too, into a number's debate
That's fair, I was asking for numbers.

Though it was numbers of dead, not living -- the one leads to the other.

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Post by marcus »

karen wrote:That's fair, I was asking for numbers.

Though it was numbers of dead, not living -- the one leads to the other.

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What an interesting thread. I almost started project 548b to see if I could answer the question purely based on what the sources say, but realised that it would take much, much longer than I have time for. No doubt I will still do it at some point! It must appeal to the latent statistician in me ... :roll:

At the moment - much more fun to read all the responses and discussions surrounding the question. Good call, Karen!

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Maybe we should do a poll

Post by karen »

Hi Marcus et al:

If we want to tally up from all the sources, we could split up the work between several people. I was thinking of doing Arrian anyway.

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Re: Maybe we should do a poll

Post by marcus »

karen wrote:Hi Marcus et al:

If we want to tally up from all the sources, we could split up the work between several people. I was thinking of doing Arrian anyway.

Warmly,
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I suppose that could work. I want to be careful that I don't offer to engage in something I really don't have time to do, though.

We would also have to be clear, of course, that any numbers that we come up with are, in the first instance, "according to X source". It would then provide more solid numbers upon which to hang the discussion that is already in progress. How far they would help to arrive at a 'correct' number remains to be seen ...

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Post by amyntoros »

karen wrote:
We have turned this topic too, into a number's debate
That's fair, I was asking for numbers.

Though it was numbers of dead, not living -- the one leads to the other.

ATB
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Agreed. If we don’t have a consensus on the number of the living then how can we estimate the number of the dead? Examining the battle of Gaugamela from outside the box; instead of debating the logistics of feeding the Persian army and how many the battle field could hold, etc., I’d like to consider the survivors, using Arrian’s numbers. He starts with 1,000,000 foot and 40,000 horse for the Persian army (A.11.8.6) and ends up with “…barbarian corpses said to number some 300,000, but far more were made prisoner than killed.” (A. III.15.6) So, how many prisoners would that be? 400,000? 500,000? Setting aside the logistics of caring for 500,000 prisoners for the moment, that figure would still leave almost a quarter of a million soldiers fleeing from Alexander’s wrath. Where did they all go?

Arrian reports that 40,000 (!) were killed at the Persian gates. We know that Darius and Bessus did not have huge numbers with them, so let’s suppose that the fleeing soldiers were successful in returning to their own territories. No huge numbers are given for Bactria and Sogdia, are they? In India, Arrian reports Abisares as having 20,000 men, Porus around 35,000, and for the sake of argument let’s say Taxilles had the same. That’s still only 90,000 for all of the Indians, assuming that the feuding Indian satraps sent ALL of their forces to Darius and ALL of them escaped to return home. Hah! And what of the other 100,000 escapees – where did they go? To lands that were never conquered by Alexander? To the relatively few Persian cities (which are compared with oases in Richard N. Frye’s The Heritage of Persia) most (all?) of which were already under Alexander’s command?

While thinking that the above is not very likely, I want to now return to the 500,000 captured soldiers. What on earth did Alexander DO with all these men? Slap them on their wrists and allow them to return to their homes to be placed under the supervision of the various newly-appointed Persian satraps? We’re talking about 600,000 to 700,000 enemy soldiers in total, left in Alexander’s rear as he pressed forward after Darius. And it doesn’t matter whether my estimates for captured soldiers are incorrect. Lower estimates for the captured means that higher numbers escaped. Is there anyone here who thinks that these figures are even slightly plausible?

IMO, these numbers are ridiculous, yet one would have to agree with them to begin to come close to an estimate of 500,000-1,000,000 deaths.

(And I’m still trying to get my around 40,000 Persians killed at the Persian Gates where we’re told Ariobarzanes escaped with only “a handful of horsemen.” Killing fields, anyone?)

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Last edited by amyntoros on Sat Feb 24, 2007 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Plainly silly

Post by Paralus »

amyntoros wrote: What on earth did Alexander DO with all these men? Slap them on their wrists and allow them return them to their homes to be placed under the supervision of the various newly-appointed Persian satraps? We’re talking about 600,000 to 700,000 enemy soldiers in total, left in Alexander’s rear as he pressed forward after Darius. And it doesn’t matter whether my estimates for captured soldiers are incorrect. Lower estimates for the captured means that higher numbers escaped. Is there anyone here who thinks that these figures are even slightly plausible?
Plainly implausible and arrant nonsense. The figures, that is!

A couple of things spring to mind. Firstly, at the conclusion of what must have been a terrible battle – one occasioning much death, dismemberment and wounded – there will have been, one suspects, little will, good or otherwise, to deal with a prisoner population the size of which (500-600,000) far outstripped that of Athens. Plainly silly.

Secondly, although it is attested that Alexander chased Darius, he gave the chase up as a lost cause and took the correct strategic decision to march upon Babylon and secure the central core of the, by then, Macedonian Empire. He arrived upon the plain approaching the city in battle array. Who, pray tell was looking after the combined populations of Athens and Megara (the prisoners)? Possibly the not quite trusted Corinthian Leaguers numbering some 6,000?

I don't think so.

There exist little snippets in Arrian that might give one to furiously think. One such is the number of elephants – fifteen. Darius had a considerable amount of time to field this army of the central and eastern satrapies - though not quite as much as would normally be the case. According to Arrian, he amassed some 1,000 000 infantry from Media to India. Now, with all that time up his silken sleeves, how is it he failed to arrange enough ancient Abrams? Porus would assemble somewhere between 85 and 200 six years later and he a local dynast.

It would likely speak more to the size of the Indian contingent and – a fortiori – the army as whole than it does to a dilatory Darius. He did, after all, over prepare everything else.

Have the Sister in-law's sixtieth to go to and will get back to you tomorrow Efstathios…
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Re: Plainly silly

Post by marcus »

Paralus wrote:Plainly implausible and arrant nonsense. The figures, that is!
I'm glad you qualified that statement! In my mind I could hear seconds furiously negotiating time and place and choice of weapons ... :o

The other thing to consider is also the generally accepted numbers for casualties in battle. I don't have them to hand, but off the top of my head a mortality of more than 20% is considered extremely high (and I forget what the numbers for wounded are). Obviously this needs more checking; however, this leads to two things:

1. It means that, if we can arrive at a better number for the original, say, Persian army, then statistics can tell us what numbers we should expect to have been killed.

2. It also means that, in the case of the Persian Gates, Amyntoros's comment about the killing fields is most apt - if only a handful of 40,000 escaped, then they must have been massacred in the true sense of the word.

The only thing that I would say is that we should consider that when, say, Arrian, talks about the Persian dead, he might mean Persian "casualties", which can include the wounded (which are usually up to something like four times the number of dead).

ATB (and sorry if this didn't all make sense - I'm just on my way out to the British Museum, having had to endure a cold shower this morning. Not in the most coherent of moods at the moment.)
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Post by Paralus »

Efstathios wrote: If the figures of 400 and 600.000 Persians that the sources give are not correct, then why would the figures for Egypt be correct? They come from some of the same sources. Because they seem more reasonable?
Hi Efstathios.

Sorry 'bout the length….it seemed to take on a life all its own, and, about as controllable as my kids.

It would be rather churlish to suggest that they do not appeal to me because they seem more reasonable. The fact is, they are more reasonable. This in no way argues against their accuracy.
Efstathios wrote:Sending only 10.000 soldiers to deal with the Egyptians ,when they had been a pain in the neck for the Persians doesnt seem reasonable. Not when surely the Persian Empire had a lot more available to send.
Diodorus (15.41.1) tells us that Iphicrates led a Greek contingent of 20,000 to Egypt, in about 374/3, as part of Pharnabazus' army who – at the direction of Atraxerxes II – was charged with the recovery of the province. The mercenaries were required due to the fact that two other expeditions – apparently sans hoplites – had been repelled by the Egyptians with the aid of the Athenian condottiere Chabrias and a corps of Greeks. Obviously – like the Macedonian phalanx – Iphicrates' mercenary army was to be the engine of the victory. Diodorus then goes on to tell us that the total force was 200,000. Nip of scotch, pint of water?

Similarly, for the invasion of 343, Diodorus (15.41.3) informs us that Artaxerxes III took Greek mercenaries to Egypt (where he was successful – and had Alexander encountered this fellow ten years later?). This time the most important corps of the army is rendered to a ridiculous rump of 10,000 (mostly Theban/ Boeotian if memory serves) of 300,000! Nip of scotch and gallon of water?

At Cunaxa Clearchus' Greeks number 10,040 hoplites and 2,500 peltasts. This out of an army numbering "100,000 native troops". These were the troops that Cyrus the Younger was pinning his dreams of empire on (Anabasis 1.8.13). Xenophon then – rather incontinently – informs us that the Great Kings' army numbered 900,000. Having then told us this, he goes on to retail the rather fantastic story that Cyrus orders Clearchus to march obliquely towards the enemy centre (and leave the river which was protecting the flank) so as to engage the King. Remember: the Greeks are 10,040 in number and holding the right wing. Were the opposing army far superior in numbers this order stands as pure farce. The Greeks and – a fortiori – Cyrus' imperial ambitions, will have been cut to pieces.

It stands to reason that if the Greeks, marching obliquely towards the centre, could engage the Great King in the centre of his array, then Cyrus' army was not 110,000 strong. More like 30 - 40,000. Similarly, Artaxerxes' army is as near to 900,000 as my bank balance is to Donald Trump's.

Such figures need to be borne in mind when assessing the likely numbers killed. We have reasonable descriptions of the battle of Issus. Clear enough to indicate the utter shock that registered in Alexander's demeanour following the news that the effeminate despot, Darius III, had managed to march an army from Sochi, through the Amanian Gates and down to Issus to cut off the Macedonian's lines of supply and communications. Given the fact that the Bache pass in ancient times was devoid of the graded and sealed road that now traverses it, it is unlikely in the extreme to have admitted an army of 600,000 and its supply wagons in the time described. Divide it by a factor of eight to ten and this makes a little more sense.

Just on this, Arrian represents Darius' decision as the pure folly of a credulous and effette oriental despot whose mind is platicine in the hands of fatuous, flattering and sycophantic courtiers. Worse, that he has not the obvious common sense to listen to the one fellow with any real tactical knowledge: a Macedonian deserter named Amyntas. I'm afraid that - in my view - this plays much better as a nice little after the fact story that neatly covers Alexander's gotten-behind-of royal posterior. Wouldn't do to have Alexander tactically outplayed.

The numbers we are given for casualties are, as a result, similarly fantastical. Arrian gives 110,000 Persian dead and fails to mention the Macedonian numbers aside from 120 "of distinction" who perished in the bloody melee that was the Pinarus as a result of Alexander's charge across the river allowing the Greek mercenaries to penetrate the desperate and discombobulated Macedonian phalanx. Curtius gives us 450 dead and 4,500 wounded.

Darius, seeing his left collapse chooses to depart the scene in his chariot – through 600,000 men mind. At this, the Persians incontinently flee the field. Arrian's description of this army attempting to flee the plain and choking in the mountain defiles renders – to my mind – any instant departure from the field by Darius rather difficult. Unless, of course, the numbers were nothing like 600,000 that is.

It is entirely conceivable that the Persians will have surrendered up many dead in the confusion. It is equally possible that so too did the Macedonians. There must have been severe fatalities amongst a phalanx split and broken upon the banks of the Pinarus and assailed by Greeks filled with murderous intent. The situation here was desperate and necessitated the Macedonian right to wheel left and come to aid of the ruptured centre.

As well, a "furious assault" by the Persian cavalry on the Macedonian left led to a "desperate" battle that was only ended when it was observed that the Persian centre and left was in total disarray.

I'd guess that 450 may well seriously understate the Macedonian dead.

There is another indicator: reserves. Between 334 and 331 (after Gaugamela), Alexander asked for and received - there is no better way to describe it - another army. The totals (after Bosworth, The Legacy of Alexander) are in the order of 23,100 (including some 1,000 horse) of which Bosworth estimates Macedonian infantry to account for some 9,000. Some of these will have been to replace those left on garrison duty – in fact a healthy number one suspects. There is, though, little chance to my thinking, that any of those 9,000 phalangites will have found their way to this duty. Yet, by the time we reach Gaugamela, the Macedonian infantry numbers are somewhere near to 15,000 or so – remarkably similar to the estimates for the original army of invasion. These numbers are largely the same as those operating in India as well.

Some 9,000 Macedonian dead? I suppose the question is how many Macedonian infantry were sacrificed to garrison duties?
Last edited by Paralus on Mon Feb 26, 2007 4:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Justin was the easy one to do

Post by marcus »

karen wrote:Hi Marcus et al:

If we want to tally up from all the sources, we could split up the work between several people. I was thinking of doing Arrian anyway.

Warmly,
Karen
Just so's you know - in the interests of research, I went through Justin this morning (books 11 and 12 only, as these are the ones that deal with Alexander). Not much information in these two books, as you'd expect; so that's one source "dealt with".

I tried to figure out what sort of workload Diodorus would present ... hmmmm, it will be an arduous project. None the less worthwhile for the doing of it, of course, but I think we should be totally prepared for what we are embarking on, if we do it.

Anyway, we don't need to do Justin now, as I've done it - I will post my results once I have "analysed" them.

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One down

Post by karen »

Thanks Marcus!

So we have Arrian, Curtius, Plutarch & Diodoros left... I think only Curtius is not available in electronic form, right?

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Re: One down

Post by marcus »

karen wrote:Thanks Marcus!

So we have Arrian, Curtius, Plutarch & Diodoros left... I think only Curtius is not available in electronic form, right?

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As far as I know, yes. If I were to do any of the others I'd probably use the books, because it's such a pain to read so much text online. But I don't have Diodorus in book format, so would have to use my electronic copy.

Having said that, I don't know when, or if, I'd have time to do the others, so if others can go through them before I do all well and good.

I might be able to post up the Justin numbers later on this evening ... but don't wait up (as it were).

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Re: Two down

Post by marcus »

I've done Diodorus, now (Book 17 only, of course).

I still have to collate the info I've now gleaned from Justin and Diodorus, but might get a chance to at least make a start this weekend. How to present the information is a tricky one, too - I shall cogitate on that ...

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You're way ahead of me

Post by karen »

Caught up in so many other things! I'm at Gaugamela, in Curtius.

Warmly,
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P.S. maybe we should adjoin the two threads? Can you do that?
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