Posted: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:55 pm
Hi Coral,
Had a quick look at Dengue on Wikipedia. As you point out, it doesn't perfectly fit Alexander's symptoms, because its fever isn't notably intermittent. The annual death rate from Falciparum Malaria today exceeds 1 million and may be as high as 2 million. Wikipedia speaks of annual deaths from Dengue fever being in the low thousands. Wikipedia gives a Dengue fever distribution in 2000 that shows no incidence anywhere very near Iraq (Babylon). Wikipedia gives a mortality from Dengue in the 2005 outbreaks in SE Asia of 1623 out of 227,924 cases, i.e. one in 140. Mortality in adults who are travellers to the region of infection is more like 50% in untreated cases of Falciparum Malaria. All these considerations would make it seem at least a thousand times less likely that Alexander died of Dengue than of Falciparum Malaria, notwithstanding their having some symptoms in common.
Best wishes,
Andrew
Had a quick look at Dengue on Wikipedia. As you point out, it doesn't perfectly fit Alexander's symptoms, because its fever isn't notably intermittent. The annual death rate from Falciparum Malaria today exceeds 1 million and may be as high as 2 million. Wikipedia speaks of annual deaths from Dengue fever being in the low thousands. Wikipedia gives a Dengue fever distribution in 2000 that shows no incidence anywhere very near Iraq (Babylon). Wikipedia gives a mortality from Dengue in the 2005 outbreaks in SE Asia of 1623 out of 227,924 cases, i.e. one in 140. Mortality in adults who are travellers to the region of infection is more like 50% in untreated cases of Falciparum Malaria. All these considerations would make it seem at least a thousand times less likely that Alexander died of Dengue than of Falciparum Malaria, notwithstanding their having some symptoms in common.
Best wishes,
Andrew